26 March 2016

Juggling between two ‘high chance’ seats


BATU Kawahconstituency and the new seat of BatuKitang are two Chinese-majority electorates where the BarisanNasional (BN) stands a high chance of winning.There are challenges but not without advantages.

BatuKawah has about 16,000 voters, 60 per cent of whom are Chinese, and out of the remaining 40 per cent, Iban voters take up 80 per cent.

This new seat of Batu Kitang, carved out of BatuKawah and Kota Sentosa, has about 17,000 voters and similar to Batu Kawah, Chinese voters take up 60 per cent of the total while the Bidayuh voters make up 80 per cent of the remaining 40 per cent non-Chinese voters.

Both seats are considered “safer” for BN than the other Chinese-majority seats in Kuching because of their high number of bumiputera voters. However, at this stage, it’s not certain which holds the higher winning percentage over the other for the ruling coalition.

Sarawak United Peoples’ Party (SUPP) president Senator Datuk Dr Sim Kui Hian and Padawan Municipal Council (MPP) chairman Lo Khere Chiang has also thrown his hat into the ring by working equally hard in both areas so that no one is certain who is the candidate for which area. This is done mainly to pave a sure way for Dr Sim to hold sway — by fielding him in one of the two areas where he has highest chance of winning. It could be Batu Kawa or Batu Kintang.

Much, of course, will depend on the final assessment from the ground.

The move is seen as SUPP’s strategy to ensure its survival via an all-out readiness to make sacrifices in order to get Dr Sim into the State Legislative Assembly and, hopefully, even the State Cabinet ,to counte rthe influence of UPP president Dato Sri Wong Soon Koh.

Both Batu Kawah and Batu Kitang are deemed winnable (for BN) for different reasons.

In the case of Batu Kawah, it is said to be due to the soft-spoken DAP representative for the area, Christina Chew. In the 2011 state election, at the height of opposition’s Wind of Change or the Political Tsunami, she managed to scrape through with a majority of only 543 votes.

Despite the slim majority, it was a giant-killing feat as Chew was only 27 years old then. Politically green as she was, she was still able to bring down a seasoned politician in Datuk Tan Joo Phoi who was made an Assistant Minister after he was first elected in 2006.

Over the years as an elected representative, Chew’s performance has not been impressive — both on the ground as well in the State Legislature. Of the 11 DAP elected representatives, Chew, perhaps due to her inexperience and young age (now 32), has been perceived to be easy prey. That’s why Dr Sim is said to be also eyeing her seat.

Batu Kawah is considered reclaimable by BN due primarily to the overwhelming ‘Adenan effect’–provided it’s a direct fight against DAP.  Whether it’s Dr Sim or Lo in the fray, both pose as strong candidates — Dr Sim in his capacity as SUPP president and Lo as MPP chairman who knows every nook and cranny in the area.

Both are now working hard in the two constituencies. If Batu Kawah offers a higher winning chance nearer the day Adenan is to announce the finalised BN lineup, then it is highly likely Dr Sim will be fielded there while Lo will go for Batu Kitang and vice versa.

With both serving the two areas, there is the luxury of making a last-minute decision that best suits the situation.

The apparent complication is the emerging leadership of UPP’s aspiring candidate Pemanca Liu Thian Leong who is also a formidable force in the area.  As chairman of the United Association of Kuching-Samarahan Chinese Primary Schools Board of Management, Liu has contributed much to Chinese education where his leadership has been well-established and accepted by the Chinese community as a whole.

Liu, like Dr Sim and Lo, has been working hard on the ground and managed to garner substantial support in Batu Kawa.

Against the gentle and sweet Chew, Liu is also considered a winnable candidate.

Rightly or wrongly, the problem that State BN chairman Datuk Patinggi Tan Sri Adenan Satem faces in Batu Kawah is not the lack of winnable candidates but a tat too many. To win the seat, Adenan will have to make sure there is only one BN candidate and strictly no proxies from any BN component or BN-friendly parties.

Adenan is open-minded and allows for fair play and democratic freedom in the other constituencies where BN is contesting but apparently not in Batu Kawah if BN is to wrest back the seat. The important thing is to ensure bona fide BN candidates and those from BN-friendly parties do not work at cross purposes and end up shooting themselves — and the ruling coalition–in the foot.The need to batten down the hatches and close ranks can be over-emphasised.

In any case, according to the scheme of things, SUPP is a BN family member while its splinter UPP is a BN friend. When it comes down to the choice between ‘family’ and ‘friend’ in the Batu Kawa scenario, the pertinent question is who should be given priority?

The answer is quite obvious – as a matter of principle, of course.

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